EVALUATING THE IMPACT OF RAINFALL VARIABILITY ON RICE PRODUCTION IN GORONYO LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREA OF SOKOTO STATE, NIGERIA

Abstract

Climate variability has affected agricultural production globally; this concern has motivated important
changes in the field of research during the last decade. Nigeria rice production is mainly rain-fed and
naturally prone to threats pose by rainfall variability. However, seasonal rainfall is critical for the availability
of water for rice production, which is mostly rain-fed too and rainfall variability over the past decade, is the
main cause for poor yield and failure of crops like rice in Nigeria. This study evaluates the impact of rainfall
variability on rice production in the study area. The data on rice production and annual rainfall (2014-2023)
were obtained from Ministry of Agriculture Sokoto and Meteorological Station of Sultan Abubakar the 3rd
International Airport, Sokoto respectively. Line graphs were used to show the trends of annual rainfall and
rice production, also Pearson correlation coefficient were employed to test the significant relationship among
them. The study finds out that the annual rainfall has been fluctuating over the years during the study period.
The trend line indicated a general decreasing trend in the annual rainfall as observed from the linear trend
line equation (Y=-5.2465x + 1125.4); likewise, the annual yield of the rice in tons per hectare in the study area
from 2014 to 2023 showing an overall increase in its yield with linear trend line equation (Y= 2.3254x +
105.83) and the relationship between rainfall and the rice production in the study area is a negative
relationship, which revealed a very weak correlation (r = -0/061). The result depicted a statistically significant
relationship between the correlated variable at p < 0.05 level of confidence. The study recommends that
government should make awareness campaign to the farmers on mitigation measure for rainfall variability and
climate change as well as its effects on rice production.