PARTICIPATORY MULTI-CRITERIA FLOOD VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT IN LOKOJA, KOGI STATE

Abstract

Lokoja has experienced a recurrent devastating flood event since 1994, causing deaths, displacement, and 
billions in damages amid climate change and urban growth. Traditional top-down vulnerability assessments 
often neglect local insights, limiting effective mitigation and adaptation efforts. This study employs the Analytic 
Hierarchy Process (AHP) within a participatory multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework that 
integrates stakeholder inputs with physical attributes (elevation, population density, land use, drainage 
density, rainfall, slope, road density, and proximity to rivers) to develop a flood vulnerability map of 
communities in Lokoja, Kogi State. The AHP weighted criteria results revealed order of importance of flood 
vulnerability as proximity to waterbodies (0.25) > elevation (0.20) > rainfall = (0.15) = Drainage = 0.15) > 
land used land cover change (0.12) > Road Density (0.07) > (Slope = 0.03) = (Population = 0.03). The 
reclassified results revealed a low-vulnerability area of 1,164.24 km², a moderate-vulnerability area of 
1,462.76 km², and a high-vulnerability area of 534.05 km², based on multi-criteria evaluation. Spatially, the 
vulnerability map highlights west-to-east disparities, with high-risk zones concentrated near riverine areas. 
This finding implies that areas near the river are highly vulnerable to flooding. The participatory MCA has 
demonstrated its capacity to enhance vulnerability mapping, thereby supporting decision-making aimed at 
reducing long-term vulnerability and livelihood disruption.